There may be a glimmer of hope for conservatism after all. Donald Trump’s momentum is on a downward trend, and the GOP may be headed to a brokered convention come July. It may get ugly, but it may be the only way to stop Trump.
A brokered convention occurs when no single candidate is able to secure a majority of delegates prior to the first vote at a party’s convention. In this case, this would mean that no Republican candidate would have 1,237 delegates before delegates go to convention. After the first vote, delegates are permitted to vote however they like. As of right now, I would bet that they pick Senator Ted Cruz, who is firmly in second.
“Super Saturday” revealed that Cruz is the most viable candidate to go against Trump. Cruz is only behind Trump by 84 delegates. The only problem is that Cruz is not likely to perform as well in the remaining states. Only one more state is a caucus (Hawaii), and the remaining states are primaries. The majority of those primaries are winner-take-all contests, which means Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich are no longer able to pick away at Trump’s lead. They have to win.
The path to victory lies in strategic voting, which is when you vote for a candidate that you would not necessarily care to have as the nominee to take votes away from the guy you cannot stand.
This is the one argument that keeps me from calling on Rubio and Kasich to drop out. They are still valuable in the race, but they are no longer viable as nominees. They simply need to win Florida and Ohio, respectively, drop out, and back Cruz. Florida and Ohio are both winner-take-all primaries that could grant Trump up to 165 delegates if he wins both states.
Cruz is in a distant third in both states and is unlikely to overtake Trump, who only leads the second place candidates by single-digit margins. Thus, a vote for Cruz in either Florida or Ohio is essentially a vote for Trump.
It is going to be a long and difficult road to the convention, of that we can be sure. I just don’t want to go down that road with the regret that if we had played our hand better, and voted a little bit smarter, that we could have had a shot of stopping a pseudo-fascist from running away with the nomination.